Abstract (EN):
Nowadays wind energy has become one of the alternative energy sources reaching significant figures for the grid power. The electric systems present stability problems when those have to integrate a large volume of wind generation as well as the effect of the unpredictability of wind generation output put some problems on the dispatch processes. So it became necessary to improve the wind power prediction systems. Basically there are two main approaches: statistical methods and physical ones. Usually the time horizon covered by wind forecasts is given according to scheduling schemes of the conventional power plants and conditions on electricity markets which are typically of the order of one to two days ahead. The time horizon required for wind forecasting can be divided in different time scales: very-short time for prediction in the next hour, short-term for a day-ahead, medium term extend the range for 3 to 5 days and long-term 5-7 days in advance for maintenance planning of large power plant components, wind turbines or transmission systems. Persecuting this goal the authors made investigation on wind forecasting methods for very short-term window trying to find the standard of the wind speed behaviour in this time scale. The objective is to have in advance an accurate behaviour for the next seconds to 2 hours and to incorporate these data into the wind park controller.
Idioma:
Português
Tipo (Avaliação Docente):
Científica
Contacto:
ajm@fe.up.pt