Short-term forecasting model for aggregated regional hydropower generation

• Tipo: Artigo em Revista Científica Internacional
• Data: 2014

Autores

Cláudio Monteiro (Autor) FEUP; Ramirez Rosado, IJ (Autor) Outra; Alfredo Fernandez Jimenez, LA (Autor) Outra

Revista

Título: Energy Conversion and Management

Vol. 88

Páginas: 231-238

ISSN: 0196-8904

Editora: Elsevier

Indexação

ISI Web of Knowledge - 17 Citações

Scopus - 20 Citações

Outras Informações

ID Authenticus: P-009-VFG

DOI: 10.1016/j.enconman.2014.08.017

Abstract (EN): This paper presents an original short-term forecasting model of the hourly electric power production for aggregated regional hydropower generation. The inputs of the model are previously recorded values of the aggregated hourly production of hydropower plants and hourly water precipitation forecasts using Numerical Weather Prediction tools, as well as other hourly data (load demand and wind generation). This model is composed of three modules; the first one gives the prediction of the "monthly" hourly power production of the hydropower plants; the second module gives the prediction of hourly power deviation values, which are added to that obtained by the first module to achieve the final forecast of the hourly hydropower generation; the third module allows a periodic adjustment of the prediction of the first module to improve its BIAS error. The model has been applied successfully to the real-life case study of the short-term forecasting of the aggregated hydropower generation in Spain and Portugal (Iberian Peninsula Power System), achieving satisfactory results for the next-day forecasts. The model can be valuable for agents involved in electricity markets and useful for power system operations.

Idioma: Inglês

Tipo (Avaliação Docente): Científica

Nº de páginas: 8