Short-term probabilistic forecasting models using Beta distributions for photovoltaic plants

• Tipo: Artigo em Revista Científica Internacional
• Data: 2023

Autores

Fernandez-Jimenez, LA (Autor) Outra; Cláudio Monteiro (Autor) FEUP; Ramirez-Rosado, IJ (Autor) Outra

Revista

Título: Energy Reports

Vol. 9 Nº 9

Páginas: 495-502

ISSN: 2352-4847

Editora: Elsevier

Indexação

ISI Web of Knowledge - 10 Citações

Scopus - 4 Citações

Outras Informações

ID Authenticus: P-00X-TSY

DOI: 10.1016/j.egyr.2023.01.059

Abstract (EN): This article presents original probabilistic forecasting models for day-ahead hourly energy generation forecasts for a photovoltaic (PV) plant, based on a semi-parametric approach using three deterministic forecasts. Input information of these new models consists of data of hourly weather forecasts obtained from a Numerical Weather Prediction model and variables related to the sun position for future instants. The proposed models were satisfactorily applied to the case study of a real-life PV plant in Portugal. Probabilistic benchmark models were also applied to the same case study and their forecasting results compared with the ones of the proposed models. The computer results obtained with these proposed models achieve better point and probabilistic forecasting evaluation indexes values than the ones obtained with the benchmark models. (c) 2023 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under theCCBY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

Idioma: Inglês

Tipo (Avaliação Docente): Científica

Nº de páginas: 8