Uncertainty Modelling and Risk Analysis

Code:

PRODEC022

Acronym:

MIAR

Keywords
Classification	Keyword
OFICIAL	Civil Engineering - Structures

Instance: 2023/2024 - 2S

Active?	Yes
Responsible unit:	Department of Civil and Georesources Engineering
Course/CS Responsible:	Doctoral Program in Civil Engineering

Cycles of Study/Courses

Acronym	No. of Students	Study Plan	Curricular Years	Credits UCN	Credits ECTS	Contact hours	Total Time
PRODEC	5	Syllabus since 2007/08	1	-	5	45	135

Teaching language

Suitable for English-speaking students

Objectives

To know the basics and know how to apply the techniques for modeling uncertainties in Civil Engineering problems, evaluate, quantify and calculate safety using the reliability techniques and quantify the risk inherent to structural systems of Civil Engineering.

Learning outcomes and competences

Using the models commonly used to characterize the variability of structural systems, apply the reliability techniques to calculate the probabilities of failure, evaluate the structural safety based on a probabilistic approach and determine levels of risk associated to them.

Working method

Presencial

Program

Review of probability theory and statistical techniques. Uncertainty modelling: randomness quantification, analytical models and multi-dimensional random variables; Statistical techniques to support experimental research; Fundamentals of structural feasibility analysis and simulation techniques. Risk and feasibility analysis of structural systems in Civil Engineering. Decision support.

DEMONSTRATION OF THE SYLLABUS COHERENCE WITH THE CURRICULAR UNIT'S OBJECTIVES:

The application of techniques for modeling uncertainties, structural reliability and risk analysis enables the achievement of the defined objectives, in particular those related to the knowledge of structural safety assessment and risk analysis fundamentals and its application to civil engineering problems.

Mandatory literature

Haldar, A.; Mahadevan, S.; Probability, Reliability and Statistical Methods in Engineering Design, John Wiley & Sons, 2000.
Nowak, A.S.; Collins, K.; Reliability of Structures, MacGraw-Hill, 2000.
Ayyub, B.M; Risk analysis in engineering and economics, Chapman & Hall/CRC, 2003.
Bucher, C.; Computational Analysis of Randomness in Structural Mechanics, CRC Press/Balkema, 2009.

Teaching methods and learning activities

The teaching involves sessions with theoretical presentations and discussions. The student grading will be based on a written final exam.

DEMONSTRATION OF THE COHERENCE BETWEEN THE TEACHING METHODOLOGIES AND THE LEARNING OUTCOMES:

The discussion of the UC contents allows for an efficient learning experience at this education level.

Evaluation Type

Distributed evaluation without final exam

Assessment Components

Designation	Weight (%)
Teste	50,00
Trabalho escrito	50,00
Total:	100,00

Amount of time allocated to each course unit

Designation	Time (hours)
Estudo autónomo	50,00
Frequência das aulas	36,00
Trabalho escrito	35,00
Total:	121,00

Eligibility for exams

Achieving final classification requires compliance with attendance at the course unit, according to the FEUP assessment rules.

Calculation formula of final grade

Test (50%) + Assignement (50%)