Will climate change drive alien invasive plants into areas of high protection value? An improved model-based regional assessment to prioritise the management of invasions

• Type: Article in International Scientific Journal
• Date: 2013

Authors

Vicente, JR (Author) Other; Fernandes, RF (Author) Other; Randin, CF (Author) Other; Broennimann, O (Author) Other; Goncalves, J (Author) Other; Marcos, B (Author) Other; Pocas, I (Author) FCUP; Alves, P (Author) Other; Guisan, A (Author) Other; Honrado, JP (Author) FCUP

Journal

Title: Journal of Environmental Management

Vol. 131

Pages: 185-195

ISSN: 0301-4797

Publisher: Elsevier

Indexing

ISI Web of Knowledge - 62 Citations

Scopus - 65 Citations

Scientific classification

FOS: Natural sciences > Earth and related Environmental sciences

Other information

Authenticus ID: P-008-FG2

DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2013.09.032

Abstract (EN): Species distribution models (SDMs) studies suggest that, without control measures, the distribution of many alien invasive plant species (AIS) will increase under climate and land-use changes. Due to limited resources and large areas colonised by invaders, management and monitoring resources must be prioritised. Choices depend on the conservation value of the invaded areas and can be guided by SDM predictions. Here, we use a hierarchical SDM framework, complemented by connectivity analysis of AIS distributions, to evaluate current and future conflicts between AIS and high conservation value areas. We illustrate the framework with three Australian wattle (Acacia) species and patterns of conservation value in Northern Portugal. Results show that protected areas will likely suffer higher pressure from all three Acacia species under future climatic conditions. Due to this higher predicted conflict in protected areas, management might be prioritised for Acacia dealbata and Acacia melanoxylon. Connectivity of AIS suitable areas inside protected areas is currently lower than across the full study area, but this would change under future environmental conditions. Coupled SDM and connectivity analysis can support resource prioritisation for anticipation and monitoring of AIS impacts. However, further tests of this framework over a wide range of regions and organisms are still required before wide application.

Language: English

Type (Professor's evaluation): Scientific

No. of pages: 11