A data mining approach to predict probabilities of football matches

• Type: Thesis
• Date: 2019-07-11

Authors

Tiago Filipe Mendes Neves (Author) FEUP

Thesis

A data mining approach to predict probabilities of football matches

Master's Degree

Dissertation

Scientific classification

FOS: Engineering and technology > Electrical engineering, Electronic engineering, Information engineering

Other information

DOI: 10.34626/f1nd-2j19

Resumo (PT): Com um crescimento cada vez maior dos volumes apostados em competições desportivas torna-se importante verificar até onde as técnicas de aprendizagem computacional conseguem trazer valor a esta área. É feita uma avaliação da performance de algoritmos estado-da-arte em diversas métricas, incorporado na metodologia CRISP-DM que é percorrida desde a aquisição de dados via web-scraping, passando pela geração e seleção de features. É também explorado o universo de técnicas de ensemble numa tentativa de melhorar os modelos do ponto de vista do bias-variance trade-off, com especial foco nos ensembles de redes neuronais.

Abstract (EN): With the increasing growth of the amount of money invested in sports betting markets it is important to verify how far the machine learning techniques can bring value to this area. A performance evaluation of the state-of-art algorithms is performed and evaluated according to several metrics, incorporated in the CRISP-DM methodology that goes from web-scraping through to generation and selection of features. It is also explored the universe of ensemble techniques in an attempt to improve the models from the point of view of bias-variance trade-off, with a special focus on neural network ensembles.

Language: English