Estimation of the Global Amount of Mandatory Investments for Distribution Network Expansion Planning

• Type: Article in International Conference Proceedings Book
• Date: 2021-06-27

Authors

João Tomé Saraiva (Author) FEUP; Pedro Miguel Macedo (Author) Other; Nuno Fidalgo (Author) FEUP

Conference proceedings International

Title: 2021 IEEE MADRID POWERTECH

Pages: 1-6

14th IEEE Madrid PowerTech Conference (IEEE POWERTECH)

ELECTR NETWORK, JUN 28-JUL 02, 2021

Indexing

ISI Web of Knowledge - 0 Citations

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ScienceDirect (Elsevier)

Scientific classification

FOS: Engineering and technology > Electrical engineering, Electronic engineering, Information engineering

CORDIS: Technological sciences > Engineering > Electrical engineering

Other information

Authenticus ID: P-00V-B69

DOI: 10.1109/powertech46648.2021.9494846

Abstract (EN): The financial planning of distribution systems usually includes the prediction of annual mandatory investments, concerning the resources that the DSO is compelled to allocate as a result of new network connections, required by new consumers or new energy producers. This paper presents a methodology to estimate the mandatory investments that the DSO should do in the distribution network. These estimations are based on historical data, load growth expectations and various socioeconomic indices. However, the available database contains very few annual investment examples (one aggregated value per year since 2002) compared to the large number of variables (potential inputs), which is a factor of regression overfitting. Thus, the applicable regression techniques are restrained to simple but efficient models. This paper describes a new methodology to identify the most suitable estimation models. The implemented application automatically builds, selects, and tests estimation models resulting from combinations of input variables. The final forecast is provided by a committee of models. Results obtained so far confirm the feasibility of the adopted methodology.

Language: English

Type (Professor's evaluation): Scientific

No. of pages: 6