The forecasting ability of a cointegrated VAR system of the UK tourism demand for France, Spain and Portugal

• Tipo: Artigo em Revista Científica Internacional
• Data: 2005

Autores

Maria M. De Mello (Autor) FEP; Kevin Nell (Autor) FEP

Revista

Título: Empirical Economics

Vol. 30 Nº 3

Páginas: 277-308

ISSN: 0377-7332

Editora: Springer Nature

Indexação

ISI Web of Knowledge - 21 Citações

Scopus - 27 Citações

Econlit

Classificação Científica

FOS: Ciências sociais > Economia e gestão

CORDIS: Ciências Sociais > Economia > Estudos sobre o turismo

Outras Informações

ID Authenticus: P-000-1GA

DOI: 10.1007/s00181-005-0241-0

Abstract (EN): This paper uses the vector autoregressive (VAR) methodology as an alternative to Deaton and Muellbauer's Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS), to establish the long-run relationships between l(l) variables: tourism shares, tourism prices and UK tourism budget. With appropriate testing, the deterministic components and sets of exogenous and endogenous variables of the VAR are established, and Johansen's rank test is used to determine the number of cointegrated vectors in the system. The cointegrated VAR structural form is identified and the long-run structural parameters are estimated. Theoretical restrictions such as homogeneity and symmetry are tested and not rejected by the VAR structure. The fully restricted cointegrated VAR model reveals itself a theoretically consistent and statistically robust means to analyse the long-run demand behaviour of UK tourists, and an accurate multi-step forecaster of the destinations' shares when compared with unrestricted reduced form and first differenced VARs, or even with the structural AIDS model.

Idioma: Inglês

Tipo (Avaliação Docente): Científica

Nº de páginas: 32