An Agent-Based MicMac Model for Forecasting of the Portuguese Population

• Type: Article in International Conference Proceedings Book
• Date: 2015

Authors

Renato Fernandes (Author) Other; Pedro Campos (Author) FEP; Rita Gaio, AR (Author) FCUP

Conference proceedings International

Title: PROGRESS IN ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

Pages: 702-707

17th Portuguese Conference on Artificial Intelligence (EPIA)

Univ Coimbra, Coimbra, PORTUGAL, SEP 08-11, 2015

Indexing

ISI Web of Knowledge - 0 Citations

Scopus - 1 Citation

Scientific classification

FOS: Natural sciences > Computer and information sciences

Other information

Authenticus ID: P-00G-TS4

DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-23485-4_71

Abstract (EN): Simulation is often used to forecast human populations. In this paper we use a novel approach by combining Micro-Macro (MicMac) models into an Agent-Based perspective to simulate and forecast the behavior of the Portuguese population. The models include migrations and three scenarios corresponding to three different expected economic growth rates. We conclude that the increase in the number of emigrants leads to a reduction of the Portuguese women that are in the fertile age. This justifies the decrease of births and therefore the general decrease of the total Portuguese Population.

Language: English

Type (Professor's evaluation): Scientific

No. of pages: 6