Bistability of Evolutionary Stable Vaccination Strategies in the Reinfection SIRI Model

• Type: Article in International Scientific Journal
• Date: 2017

Authors

Martins, J (Author) Other; Alberto A. Pinto (Author) FCUP

Journal

Title: Bulletin of Mathematical Biology

Vol. 79

Pages: 853-883

ISSN: 0092-8240

Publisher: Springer Nature

Indexing

ISI Web of Knowledge - 4 Citations

Scopus - 4 Citations

Other information

Authenticus ID: P-00M-PRR

DOI: 10.1007/s11538-017-0257-6

Abstract (EN): We use the reinfection SIRI epidemiological model to analyze the impact of education programs and vaccine scares on individuals decisions to vaccinate or not. The presence of the reinfection provokes the novelty of the existence of three Nash equilibria for the same level of the morbidity relative risk instead of a single Nash equilibrium as occurs in the SIR model studied by Bauch and Earn (PNAS 101:13391-13394, 2004). The existence of three Nash equilibria, with two of them being evolutionary stable, introduces two scenarios with relevant and opposite features for the same level of the morbidity relative risk: the low-vaccination scenario corresponding to the evolutionary stable vaccination strategy, where individuals will vaccinate with a low probability; and the high-vaccination scenario corresponding to the evolutionary stable vaccination strategy, where individuals will vaccinate with a high probability. We introduce the evolutionary vaccination dynamics for the SIRI model and we prove that it is bistable. The bistability of the evolutionary dynamics indicates that the damage provoked by false scares on the vaccination perceived morbidity risks can be much higher and much more persistent than in the SIR model. Furthermore, the vaccination education programs to be efficient they need to implement a mechanism to suddenly increase the vaccination coverage level.

Language: English

Type (Professor's evaluation): Scientific

No. of pages: 31