Is there a common pattern of future gas-phase air pollution in Europe under diverse climate change scenarios?

• Type: Article in International Scientific Journal
• Date: 2013

Authors

Jimenez Guerrero, P (Author) Other; Gomez Navarro, JJ (Author) Other; Baro, R (Author) Other; Lorente, R (Author) Other; Nuno Ratola (Author) FEUP; Montavez, JP (Author) Other

Journal

Title: Climatic Change

Vol. 121

Pages: 661-671

ISSN: 0165-0009

Publisher: Springer Nature

Indexing

Scopus - 9 Citations

Other information

Authenticus ID: P-00G-2XT

DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-0944-8

Abstract (EN): Climate change alone influences future levels of tropospheric ozone and their precursors through modifications of gas-phase chemistry, transport, removal, and natural emissions. The goal of this study is to determine at what extent the modes of variability of gas-phase pollutants respond to different climate change scenarios over Europe. The methodology includes the use of the regional modeling system MM5 (regional climate model version)-CHIMERE for a target domain covering Europe. Two full-transient simulations covering from 1991-2050 under the SRES A2 and B2 scenarios driven by ECHO-G global circulation model have been compared. The results indicate that the spatial patterns of variability for tropospheric ozone are similar for both scenarios, but the magnitude of the change signal significantly differs for A2 and B2. The 1991-2050 simulations share common characteristics for their chemical behavior. As observed from the NO2 and ¿-pinene modes of variability, our simulations suggest that the enhanced ozone chemical activity is driven by a number of parameters, such as the warming-induced increase in biogenic emissions and, to a lesser extent, by the variation in nitrogen dioxide levels. For gas-phase pollutants, the general increasing trend for ozone found under A2 and B2 forcing is due to a multiplicity of climate factors, such as increased temperature, decreased wet removal associated with an overall decrease of precipitation in southern Europe, increased photolysis of primary and secondary pollutants as a consequence of lower cloudiness and increased biogenic emissions fueled by higher temperatures. © 2013 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.

Language: English

Type (Professor's evaluation): Scientific