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The development and validation of the Portuguese risk score for detecting type 2 diabetes and impaired fasting glucose

Title
The development and validation of the Portuguese risk score for detecting type 2 diabetes and impaired fasting glucose
Type
Article in International Scientific Journal
Year
2013
Authors
Gray, LJ
(Author)
Other
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Barros H
(Author)
FMUP
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Raposo, L
(Author)
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Khunti, K
(Author)
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Davies, MJ
(Author)
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Journal
Title: Primary Care DiabetesImported from Authenticus Search for Journal Publications
Vol. 7
Pages: 11-18
ISSN: 1751-9918
Publisher: Elsevier
Other information
Authenticus ID: P-005-29Z
Abstract (EN): Aims: To develop and validate a non-invasive score for detecting undiagnosed impaired fasting glucose (IFG) and type 2 diabetes (T2DM) in a Portuguese population. Methods: We used data from 3,374 individuals aged 18-94 years from a Portuguese cross-sectional study. We developed a logistic regression model for predicting IFG/T2DM (diagnosed using fasting glucose). We externally validated the score using data from two cohorts of the EPI-Porto study, cross-sectional (n = 2,131) and data from the 5 year follow-up (n =1,304). Results: The final model included age, sex, BMI and hypertension with an area under the ROC curve of 70.1 (95%CI 68.4, 71.7). Using a cut-point which classifies 50% of the EPI-Porto cross-sectional data as high-risk gave sensitivity 73.2% (95%CI 68.5%, 77.6%), specificity 55.5% (53.1%, 57.8%), positive predictive value (PPV) 27.0% (24.3%, 29.8%) and negative predictive value (NPV) 90.2% (88.3%, 92.0%) for IFG/T2DM. Using the same cut-point on the prospective data classified 45% as high-risk; sensitivity 69.1% (63.4%, 74.4%), specificity 63.3% (60.0%, 66.5%), PPV 38.0% (33.9%, 42.4%), and NPV 86.2% (83.3%, 88.8%). Conclusion: The Portuguese risk score can be used to identify those at high risk of both prevalent undiagnosed and incident IFG/T2DM.
Language: English
Type (Professor's evaluation): Scientific
No. of pages: 8
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