ANALYSIS OF SOURCES OF RISK AND UNCERTAINTIES IN THE ELECTRICITY SYSTEM

• Type: Article in International Conference Proceedings Book
• Date: 2015

Authors

Santos, MJ (Author) Other; Ferreira, P (Author) Other; Araujo, M (Author) Other

Conference proceedings International

Title: Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Energy & Environment: bringing together Engineering and Economics

Pages: 88-96

Indexing

ISI Web of Knowledge - 1 Citation

Other information

Authenticus ID: P-00K-NT1

Abstract (EN): Electricity power planning is a serious national task that encompasses not only forecasts but more importantly the evolution in short, medium and long term of each element that composes the assumptions, the constraints and/or the parameters of the planning model. Deterministic models can bring simplicity to the electricity power planning but do not consider the uncertainties and sources of risk of the electricity system. On the other hand, stochastic models tend to include the behavior of one or more uncertain parameters that are critical to obtain a robust solution, being however more detailed and lengthy than deteministic models. The aim of this work was to identify the major sources of risk and uncertainties facing electricity system, representing valuable input for the electricit planner task. From this study it can be observed that several different behaviours for each uncertain parameter can be found along a time horizon. Thus, it is concluded that reling on average lowers can represent a reductionist approach and in order to obtain more reliable scenarios for future electricity system, the statistical charcateristics of each parameter should be considered in the electricity power planning.

Language: English

Type (Professor's evaluation): Scientific

No. of pages: 9