Long-term analysis of Kaldor's law applied to Brazil (1909-2020)

• Type: Article in International Scientific Journal
• Date: 2025

Authors

Doré, NI (Author) FEP; Araújo, E (Author) Other

Journal

Title: Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Vol. 74

Pages: 147-157

ISSN: 0954-349X

Publisher: Elsevier

Indexing

ISI Web of Knowledge - 0 Citations

Scopus - 0 Citations

Other information

Authenticus ID: P-018-82Z

DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.03.004

Abstract (EN): Nicholas Kaldor asserts that the industry is a crucial factor in promoting economic growth, suggesting that the sector's increasing returns to scale significantly impact the overall productivity of the economy. This paper assesses the relevance of Kaldor's laws for the Brazilian economy, offering new insights into their applicability through a novel methodological approach. The study contributes to the literature by employing Markov Regime- Switching (MS) models to capture nonlinear dynamics in output, productivity, and employment growth in the manufacturing sector, over a very long-term period (1909-2020). By distinguishing between lower and higher growth regimes, the analysis demonstrates that Kaldor's laws remain valid in the Brazilian context. The findings underscore the industrial sector's critical role in promoting economic growth and enhancing productivity and employment, while revealing significant non-linearities in these relationships.

Language: English

Type (Professor's evaluation): Scientific

No. of pages: 11