The Phillips curve at 65: Time for time and frequency

• Type: Article in International Scientific Journal
• Date: 2023

Authors

Aguiar Conraria, L (Author) Other; Manuel Mota Freitas Martins (Author) FEP; Soares, MJ (Author) Other

Journal

Title: Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control

Vol. 151

ISSN: 0165-1889

Indexing

ISI Web of Knowledge - 6 Citations

Scopus - 6 Citations

Other information

Authenticus ID: P-00Y-442

DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2023.104620

Abstract (EN): We estimate the U.S. New Keynesian Phillips Curve in the time-frequency domain with continuous wavelet tools to provide integrated answers to three controversial issues. (1) Has the short-run tradeoffbeen stable? (2) What has been the role of expectations? (3) Is there a long-run tradeoff? First, we find that the short-run tradeoff is limited to some specific episodes and that there is no evidence of nonlinearities or structural breaks. Second, households' expectations captured trend inflation until the Great Recession, but not since 2008. Finally, there is no significant long-run tradeoff. In the long-run, expectations explain inflation. (c) 2023 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)

Language: English

Type (Professor's evaluation): Scientific

No. of pages: 18