Simulation analysis of the impact of ignitions, rekindles, and false alarms on forest fire suppression

• Type: Article in International Scientific Journal
• Date: 2014

Authors

Abilio P. Pacheco (Author) FEUP; João Claro (Author) FEUP; Tiago Oliveira (Author) Other

Journal

Title: CANADIAN JOURNAL OF FOREST RESEARCH-REVUE CANADIENNE DE RECHERCHE FORESTIERE

Vol. 44

Pages: 45-55

ISSN: 0045-5067

Indexing

ISI Web of Knowledge - 10 Citations

ISI Web of Science

Scopus - 9 Citations

Scientific classification

FOS: Engineering and technology

CORDIS: Social sciences > Political sciences > Public policy > Technology policy ; Social sciences > Economics > Management studies > Technology management

Other information

Authenticus ID: P-008-YFP

DOI: 10.1139/cjfr-2013-0257

Abstract (EN): Rekindles and false alarms are phenomena that have a significant presence in the Portuguese forest fire management system and an important impact on suppression resources in particular and fire management resources in general. In this paper, we propose a discrete-event simulation model of a forest fire suppression system designed to analyze the joint impact of ignitions, rekindles, and false alarms on the performance of the system. The model is applied to a case study of the district of Porto, Portugal, for the critical period of the forest fire season, between July and September 2010. We study the behavior of the system's point of collapse, comparing the real base scenario with a benchmark scenario built with reference values for rekindles and false alarms, and also as a function of the number of fire incidents, considering historical variations. The results of the analysis are useful for operational decision-making and provide relevant information on the trade-off between prevention and suppression efforts.

Language: English

Type (Professor's evaluation): Scientific

No. of pages: 11