Predicting Blood Donations in a Tertiary Care Center Using Time Series Forecasting

• Type: Article in International Conference Proceedings Book
• Date: 2019

Authors

Bischoff, F (Author) FMUP; Carmo Koch, Md (Author) Other; Pedro Pereira Rodrigues (Author) FMUP

Conference proceedings International

Title: ICT for Health Science Research - Proceedings of the EFMI 2019 Special Topic Conference - 7-10 April 2019, Hanover, Germany

Pages: 135-139

Indexing

Scopus - 4 Citations

Other information

Authenticus ID: P-00Q-FEK

Abstract (EN): The current algorithm to support platelets stock management assumes that there are always sufficient whole blood donations (WBD) to produce the required amount of pooled platelets. Unfortunately, blood donation rate is uncertain so there is the need to backup pooled platelets productions with single-donor (apheresis) collections to compensate periods of low WBD. The aim of this work was to predict the daily number of WBD to a tertiary care center to preemptively account for a decrease of platelets production. We have collected 62,248 blood donations during 3 years, the daily count of which was used to feed (standalone and ensemble versions of) six prediction models, which were evaluated using the Mean Absolute Error (MAE). Forecast models have shown better performances with a MAE of about 8.6 donations, 34% better than using means or medians alone. Trend lines of donations are better modeled by autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) using a frequency of 365 days, the trade-off being the need for at least two years of data.

Language: English

Type (Professor's evaluation): Scientific