Do the Malthusian fears ever die? A note on the recent increase in food prices

• Type: Article in International Scientific Journal
• Date: 2008

Authors

Argentino Pessoa (Author) FEP

Journal

Title: Economics Bulletin

Vol. 17

Pages: 1-11

ISSN: 1545-2921

Publisher: Economics Bulletin

Indexing

Scopus

Econlit

Scientific classification

FOS: Social sciences > Economics and Business

CORDIS: Social sciences

Other information

Abstract (EN): Beginning with a snapshot of the recent raise in food prices, the present paper put in question the hypothesis of it be a response to the near end of resources. Examining some medium and long-run factors that explain the evolution of food production, with special focus on cereals, using data of the World Bank for the last 45 years, and a regression for a cross-section of 106 countries, we show that: a) the capacity to feed a growing population has been associated to a sustained increase in productivity, measured by the cereal yields; b) the increase in cereal yields is negatively associated to the increase in land under cereal production; c) there is large room to go on increasing cereal production and productivity in low and middle-income countries, profiting from the productivity gap that differentiate them from the high-income countries. So, the main conclusion is that the Limits to Grow’ perspective and the associated Malthusian fears have no empirical support.

Language: English

Type (Professor's evaluation): Scientific