Cohesive forest fire management within an imperfect information environment: a review of risk handling and Decision Support Systems actually in use

• Type: Article in International Conference Proceedings Book
• Date: 2018

Authors

João Claro (Author) FEUP; Abílio P. Pacheco (Author) FEUP; José Coelho Rodrigues (Author) FEUP; Paulo M. Fernandes (Author) Other; Richard de Neufville (Author) Other; Tiago M. Oliveira (Author) Other; José G. Borges (Author) Other

Conference proceedings International

Title: Advances in forest fire research 2018

Pages: 1197-1199

Other information

DOI: 10.14195/978-989-26-16-506_136

Abstract (EN): Wildfire management has been struggling in recent years with escalating devastation, expenditures, and complexity. Uncertain and highly unpredictable factors, such as weather forecasts, performance of suppression resources, and fire behavior, spread and effects are the basis of fire management and policy decisions, across multiple levels and scales. Given these copious factors and the complexity of their interactions, uncertainty in the outcomes is a prominent feature of wildfire management strategies, at both policy and operational levels. Theoretical and computational progress in the last four decades has enabled the development of risk-based Decision Support Systems (DSS) that contribute to improve those decisions, namely by facilitating a structured assessment of the outcomes and costs associated with alternative policies, budgets, and suppression resource mixes. Improvements in risk handling and in risk-based decision support tools have therefore a key role in addressing these challenges. In this context, we review key systems created to support wildfire management decisionmaking at different levels and scales, and describe their evolution from an initial focus on landscapelevel fire growth simulation and burn probability assessment, to the incorporation of exposure and economic loss potential (allowing the translation of ignition likelihood, fire environment – terrain, fuels, and weather – and suppression efficacy into potential fire effects), the integration with forest management and planning, and more recently, to developments in the assessment of values at risk, including real-time assessment. This evolution is linked to a progressive widening of the scope of usage of these systems, from an initial more limited application to risk assessment, to the subsequent inclusion of functionality enabling their utilization in the context of risk management, and more recently, to their explicit casting in the broader societal context of risks and decisions, from a risk governance perspective. This joint evolution can be seen as the result of a simultaneous pull from methodological progresses in risk handling, and push from technological progress in wildfire management decision support tools, as well as more broadly in computational power. Seeking to characterize this movement, in a recent paper (Pacheco et al 2015) we identify the key benefits and challenges in the development and adoption of these systems, as well as future plausible research trends.

Language: English

Type (Professor's evaluation): Scientific

No. of pages: 3