An Experimental Study on Predictive Models Using Hierarchical Time Series

• Type: Article in International Conference Proceedings Book
• Date: 2015

Authors

Silva, AM (Author) Other; Rita Ribeiro (Author) FCUP; João Gama (Author) FEP

Conference proceedings International

Title: PROGRESS IN ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

Pages: 501-512

17th Portuguese Conference on Artificial Intelligence (EPIA)

Univ Coimbra, Coimbra, PORTUGAL, SEP 08-11, 2015

Indexing

ISI Web of Knowledge - 0 Citations

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Other information

Authenticus ID: P-00G-SYP

DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-23485-4_50

Abstract (EN): Planning strategies play an important role in companies' management. In the decision-making process, one of the main important goals is sales forecasting. They are important for stocks planing, shop space maintenance, promotions, etc. Sales forecasting use historical data to make reliable projections for the future. In the retail sector, data has a hierarchical structure. Products are organized in hierarchical groups that reflect the business structure. In this work we present a case study, using real data, from a Portuguese leader retail company. We experimentally evaluate standard approaches for sales forecasting and compare against models that explore the hierarchical structure of the products. Moreover, we evaluate different methods to combine predictions for the different hierarchical levels. The results show that exploiting the hierarchical structure present in the data systematically reduces the error of the forecasts.

Language: English

Type (Professor's evaluation): Scientific

No. of pages: 12