Cohesive fire management within an uncertain environment: A review of risk handling and decision support systems

• Type: Another Publication in an International Scientific Journal
• Date: 2015

Authors

Abílio Pereira Pacheco (Author) FEUP; João Claro (Author) FEUP; Paulo M. Fernandes (Author) Other; Richard de Neufville (Author) Other; Tiago M. Oliveira (Author) Other; José G. Borges (Author) Other; José Coelho Rodrigues (Author) FEUP

Journal

Title: Forest Ecology and Management

Vol. 347

Pages: 1-17

ISSN: 0378-1127

Publisher: Elsevier

Indexing

ISI Web of Knowledge - 38 Citations

Scopus - 41 Citations

Scientific classification

FOS: Agrarian Sciences > Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries

CORDIS: Natural sciences > Agrarian Sciences > Forest sciences ; Social sciences > Political sciences > Governance

Other information

Authenticus ID: P-00A-8T7

DOI: 10.1016/j.foreco.2015.02.033

Abstract (EN): Wildfire management has been struggling in recent years with escalating devastation, expenditures, and complexity. Given the copious factors involved and the complexity of their interactions, uncertainty in the outcomes is a prominent feature of wildfire management strategies, at both policy and operational levels. Improvements in risk handling and in risk-based decision support tools have therefore a key role in addressing these challenges. In this paper, we review key systems created to support wildfire management decision-making at different levels and scales, and describe their evolution from an initial focus on landscape-level fire growth simulation and burn probability assessment, to the incorporation of exposure and economic loss potential (allowing the translation of ignition likelihood, fire environment terrain, fuels, and weather and suppression efficacy into potential fire effects), the integration with forest management and planning, and more recently, to developments in the assessment of values at risk, including real-time assessment. This evolution is linked to a progressive widening of the scope of usage of these systems, from an initial more limited application to risk assessment, to the subsequent inclusion of functionality enabling their Utilization in the context of risk management, and more recently, to their explicit casting in the broader societal context of risks and decisions, from a risk governance perspective. This joint evolution can be seen as the result of a simultaneous pull from methodological progresses in risk handling, and push from technological progress in wildfire management decision support tool, as well as more broadly in computational power. We identify the key benefits and challenges in the development and adoption of these systems, as well as future plausible research trends.

Language: English

Type (Professor's evaluation): Scientific

No. of pages: 17