Forecasting Methods

Code:

EM503

Acronym:

MP

Instance: 2003/2004 - 1S

Active?	Yes
Responsible unit:	Industrial Management and Engineering Section
Institution Responsible:	Faculty of Engineering

Cycles of Study/Courses

Acronym	No. of Students	Study Plan	Curricular Years	Credits UCN	Credits ECTS	Contact hours	Total Time
LEM	21	Plano de Estudos EM Oficial a partir de 2000	5	3	7	-
		Plano para Bachareis EM a partir 2000	2	3	7	-

Teaching language

Portuguese

Objectives

This course has three main objectives. In first place, it is intended to show the role that the forecasting methods (FM) play as tools of decision support. In the second place, one is to study a vast array of FM (based in time series, causal and qualitative), debating the involved basic concepts in each one and the situations where they should be applied. Finally, one intends to expose the students to practical questions in the application of the FM to management problems.

Program

FORECASTING and DECISIONS MAKING : Role of the FM in decision processes. Classification of the FM. Quantitative Methods: methods based on time series and causal methods. Qualitative methods. Underlying hypotheses and conditions of applicability. FM Selection. ANALYSIS OF DATA: How to present data. How to detect and handle exceptional data points. Advantages and risks of the aggregation of data.
ANALYSIS OF TIME SERIES: Introduction. Regression (revision of concepts studied in Statistics). Classical decomposition. Exponential Smoothing Methods. The Box-Jenkins Methodology.
CAUSAL MODELS: Models of regression. Its application to the forecasting (mediun-long term) the prices of merchandises: the model of behavior of prices of Kingsman. Reference to the models of simultaneous equations and the different methods of parameters estimation.
JUDGMENTAL FORECAST: Role of the judgmental methods. Explorative methods: extrapolation of trends; time independent technological comparisons; morphological analysis; Delphi method. Normative methods: relevance trees (method PATTERN); Delphi method.

Main Bibliography

Notes, produced by the professors, including solved problems.
Internet websites.

Complementary Bibliography

Makridakis, Wheelwright and Hyndman, 1998
Forecasting: Methods and Applications.
John Wiley & Sons
http://www-personal.buseco.monash.edu.au/~hyndman/forecasting/

Software

Microsoft EXCEL

Evaluation Type

Distributed evaluation without final exam

Eligibility for exams

i) not to exceed nº limit of class skiping;
ii) accomplishment of the 3 practical cases.
iii) minimum grade in the test: 8 points over 20

Calculation formula of final grade

Each practical case contributes with 20% to the final classification. The test has the weight of 40% in the final classification.