Risk and Foresight

Code:

2M3E27

Acronym:

RF

Keywords
Classification	Keyword
OFICIAL	Economics

Instance: 2023/2024 - 1S

Active?	Yes
Course/CS Responsible:	Master in Economics of Business and Strategy

Cycles of Study/Courses

Acronym	No. of Students	Study Plan	Curricular Years	Credits UCN	Credits ECTS	Contact hours	Total Time
MEEE	32	Syllabus	2	-	3	21	81

Teaching language

English

Objectives

The curricular unit presents how economic reasoning can be used to study the impact of risk (operational, strategic, and external) on the organization, having three specific objectives. First, to provide students with in-depth knowledge to anticipate and manage structural change in various domains (scientific and technological, economic, geopolitical, social) in the organization. Second, to use economic principles (which govern the strategic and organizational context) to assess and respond to risk and uncertainty. Third, to adopt a strategic perspective to exploit the opportunities generated by risk and structural change.

Learning outcomes and competences

At the end of the course, students are expected to know:

1. Understand the complementarity between foresight and forecasting;
2. Use economic reasoning in the dialogue between foresight and strategy to build economically relevant scenarios;
3. Be alert to the role of collective consciousness in the organization, taking into account heuristics, fallacies, and cognitive biases;
4. Identify tools to analyze and mitigate risk and uncertainty.

Working method

Presencial

Program

1. Fundamentals
1.1 Strategic risk
1.2 The organization
1.3 Scenarios and strategy
2. Analysis
2.1 Information and emotion
2.2 Rigor
2.3 Decision
3. Risk and resilience
3.1 Risk management
3.2 Alert systems
3.3 Build resilience
4. Crisis management

Mandatory literature

Kees Van der Heijden; The art of strategic conversation. ISBN: 0-471-96639-8
Aswath Damodaran; Strategic risk taking. ISBN: 978-0-13-704377-4

Complementary Bibliography

David Besanko; Economics of strategy. ISBN: 978-1-119-37876-1
Paul R. Milgrom; Economics, organization and management. ISBN: 0-13-224650-3
Daniel Kahneman; Thinking, fast and slow. ISBN: 978-0-141-03357-0
Hopkin, Paul, e Clive Thompson; Fundamentals of Risk Management: Understanding, evaluating and implementing effective enterprise risk management,, Kogan Page, 2022

Teaching methods and learning activities

The teaching methodology combines lectures, readings and class discussion going full-circle from the theory presentation and knowledge acquisition to the application of such knowledge to discussion of relevant topics and the resolution of factual strategic problems.

Evaluation Type

Distributed evaluation without final exam

Assessment Components

Designation	Weight (%)
Participação presencial	100,00
Total:	100,00

Amount of time allocated to each course unit

Designation	Time (hours)
Estudo autónomo	60,00
Frequência das aulas	21,00
Total:	81,00

Eligibility for exams

Students are required to attend at least 75% of classes.

Calculation formula of final grade

Distributed evaluation: The final classification corresponds to the weighted average of participation in class (20%) and case studies (80%).

Final exam: There is no exam in the normal/first season. In the resit/second or in the special seasons, the grade of the final exam yields the final classification