Technical Note: Assessing predictive capacity and conditional independence of landslide predisposing factors for shallow landslide susceptibility models

• Type: Article in International Scientific Journal
• Date: 2012

Authors

Pereira, Susana (Author) FLUP; Zêzere, José Luís (Author) Other; Bateira, Carlos (Author) FLUP

Journal

Title: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences

Vol. 12 No. 4

Pages: 979-988

ISSN: 1561-8633

Publisher: Copernicus

Indexing

Scopus

Scientific classification

CORDIS: Natural sciences

FOS: Natural sciences

Other information

DOI: 10.5194/nhess-12-979-2012

Abstract (EN): The aim of this study is to identify the landslide predisposing factors' combination using a bivariate statistical model that best predicts landslide susceptibility. The best model is one that has simultaneously good performance in terms of suitability and predictive power and has been developed using variables that are conditionally independent. The study area is the Santa Marta de Penaguião council (70 km2) located in the Northern Portugal. In order to identify the best combination of landslide predisposing factors, all possible combinations using up to seven predisposing factors were performed, which resulted in 120 predictions that were assessed with a landside inventory containing 767 shallow translational slides. The best landslide susceptibility model was selected according to the model degree of fitness and on the basis of a conditional independence criterion. The best model was developed with only three landslide predisposing factors (slope angle, inverse wetness index, and land use) and was compared with a model developed using all seven landslide predisposing factors. Results showed that it is possible to produce a reliable landslide susceptibility model using fewer landslide predisposing factors, which contributes towards higher conditional independence.

Language: English

Type (Professor's evaluation): Scientific