More from Less? Environmental Rebound Effects of City Size

• Type: Article in International Scientific Journal
• Date: 2021

Authors

Meirelles, J (Author) Other; Ribeiro, FL (Author) Other; Cury, G (Author) Other; Binder, CR (Author) Other; Netto, VM (Author) Other

Journal

Title: Sustainability

Vol. 27

Final page: 4028

ISSN: 2071-1050

Publisher: MDPI

Indexing

ISI Web of Knowledge - 13 Citations

Scopus - 14 Citations

Other information

Authenticus ID: P-018-VVY

DOI: 10.3390/su13074028

Abstract (EN): Global sustainability relies on our capacity of understanding and guiding urban systems and their metabolism adequately. It has been proposed that bigger and denser cities are more resource-efficient than smaller ones because they tend to demand less infrastructure, consume less fuel for transportation and less energy for cooling/heating in per capita terms. This hypothesis is also called Brand's Law. However, as cities get bigger, denser and more resource-efficient, they also get richer, and richer inhabitants consume more, potentially increasing resource demand and associated environmental impacts. In this paper, we propose a method based on scaling theory to assess Brand's Law taking into account greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from both direct (energy and fuels locally consumed) and indirect (embedded in goods and services) sources, measured as carbon footprint (CF). We aim at understanding whether Brand's Law can be confirmed once we adopt a consumption-based approach to urban emissions. By analyzing the balance between direct and indirect emissions in a theoretical urban system, we develop a scaling theory relating carbon footprint and city size. Facing the lack of empirical data on consumption-based emissions for cities, we developed a model to derive emission estimations using well-established urban metrics (city size, density, infrastructure, wealth). Our results show that, once consumption-based CF is considered, Brand's Law falls apart, as bigger cities have greater purchase power, leading to greater consumption of goods and higher associated GHG. Findings also suggest that a shift in consumption patterns is of utmost importance, given that, according to the model, each new monetary unit added to the gross domestic product (GDP) or to other income variables results in a more than proportional increase in GHG emissions. This work contributes to a broader assessment of the causes of emissions and the paradigm shift regarding the assumption of efficiency in the relationship of city size and emissions, adding consumption behavior as a critical variable, beyond Brand's Law.

Language: English

Type (Professor's evaluation): Scientific

No. of pages: 20