A long term generation expansion planning model using system dynamics - Case study using data from the Portuguese/Spanish generation system

• Type: Article in International Scientific Journal
• Date: 2013

Authors

Adelino J. C. Pereira (Author) FEUP; João Tomé Saraiva (Author) FEUP

Journal

Title: Electric Power Systems Research

Vol. 97 No. Abril 2013

Pages: 41-50

ISSN: 0378-7796

Publisher: Elsevier

Indexing

ISI Proceedings

ISI Web of Knowledge - 33 Citations

ISI Web of Science

Scopus - 41 Citations

INSPEC

Scientific classification

FOS: Engineering and technology > Electrical engineering, Electronic engineering, Information engineering

CORDIS: Technological sciences > Engineering > Electrical engineering

Other information

Authenticus ID: P-001-ZX2

DOI: 10.1016/j.epsr.2012.12.001

Abstract (EN): This paper describes a long term generation expansion model that uses system dynamics to capture the interrelations between different variables and parameters. Using this model, it is possible to estimate the long term evolution of the demand and of the electricity price that are then used by generation agents to prepare individual expansion plans. These plans are submitted to a coordination analysis to check some global indicators, as the reserve margin and the LOLE. The developed approach is illustrated using a realistic generation system based on the Portuguese/Spanish system with an installed capacity of nearly 120 GW and an yearly demand of 312 TWh in 2010. Large investments were directed in the last 20 years to the Iberian generation system both regarding traditional technologies and dispersed generation (namely wind parks and solar systems). Today, the excess of installed capacity together with the demand reduction poses a number of questions that should be addressed carefully namely to investigate the impact of several options. The planning exercise aims at identifying the most adequate expansion plans in view of the increased renewable generation (namely wind parks). For illustration purposes, we also conducted a sensitivity analysis to evaluate the impact of increasing the installed capacity in wind parks, of internalizing CO2 emission costs and of incorporating a capacity payment. These analyses are relevant in order to get more insight on the possible long term evolution of the system and to allow generation companies to take more sounded decisions.

Language: English

Type (Professor's evaluation): Scientific

No. of pages: 10