Flood forecasting methodology for optimal reservoir operation. Application to a Portuguese river basin.

• Type: Article in International Conference Proceedings Book
• Date: 2019-12

Authors

Juliana Mendes (Author) FEUP; Rodrigo Maia (Author) FEUP

Conference proceedings International

Title: American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2019

Other information

Abstract (EN): Several research institutions worldwide have been working on the development of operational flood monitoring, forecasting and alert systems, based on integrated models which encompass hydrological and meteorological forecasting components. The main challenges continue to be the improvement of system reliability and the extension of the forecasting lead time. In view of the uncertainty underlying flood forecasting, the use of a probabilistic approach has become the rule, through the use of Ensemble Forecasting Systems. In Portugal, as in many other countries, this type of approach has not yet been implemented; flood forecasting continues to be undertaken merely over the short term, namely based on real-time monitoring of hydrometeorological variables, measured in different points along the river basins, and on the use of hydrological modelling in alert situations as indicated by the monitored data. In this context, the present work aimed to develop and apply a forecasting methodology for regularized basins, which can be continuously used over time and which allows the timely and accurate prediction of flood occurrence, so that, in due time, adequate reservoir management measures can be taken to dampen the impacts from such events, through more efficient management of stored volumes. The flood forecasting methodology was developed essentially based on: i) ensemble precipitation forecasts obtained from global circulation models, with a lead time of 10 days and a 3 hour time step, produced and disclosed by ECMWF; and ii) the use of a semi-distributed hydrologic model, which is automatically calibrated, in a continuous manner, as a function of the variation in the hydrological state of the basin through time, and applied on a daily basis, with the updated ensemble precipitation forecasts. Thus, an ensemble forecast- with a 10 day horizon and a timeframe of 3 hours - for each of the spatial units (sub-basins) defined in the model is obtained and statistically evaluated in terms of its quality and consistency. The procedure was applied to the a part of the largest (full) Portuguese river basin, the Mondego river basin, corresponding to the Aguieira multi-purpose dam section watershed, which comprises an area of 3070 km2.

Language: English

Type (Professor's evaluation): Scientific

Notes: https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2019AGUFM.H33K2095M/abstract Publication: American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2019, abstract #H33K-2095 Pub Date: December 2019 Bibcode: Keywords: 3305 Climate change and variability; ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES; 1816 Estimation and forecasting; HYDROLOGY; 1817 Extreme events; HYDROLOGY; 4333 Disaster risk analysis and assessment; NATURAL HAZARDS