Risk for Incident Heart Failure: A Subject¿Level Meta¿Analysis From the Heart ¿OMics¿ in AGEing (HOMAGE) Study

• Type: Article in International Scientific Journal
• Date: 2017

Authors

Jacobs, L (Author) Other; Efremov, L (Author) Other; Ferreira, JP (Author) FMUP; Thijs, L (Author) Other; Yang, W (Author) Other; Zhang, Z (Author) Other; Latini, R (Author) Other; Masson, S (Author) Other; Agabiti, N (Author) Other; Sever, P (Author) Other; Delles, C (Author) Other; Sattar, N (Author) Other; Butler, J (Author) Other; Cleland, JGF (Author) Other; Kuznetsova, T (Author) Other; Staessen, JA (Author) Other; Zannad, F (Author) Other; Pinet, F (Author) Other; Pizard, A (Author) Other; Rouet, P (Author) Other; Leenders, J (Author) Other; Diez, J (Author) Other; Odili, A (Author) Other; Wei, F (Author) Other; Newman, A (Author) Other; Papadimitrious, L (Author) Other; Davoli, M (Author) Other; Mureddu, GF (Author) Other; Ford, I (Author) Other; Jukema, W (Author) Other; Stott, DJ (Author) Other; Poulter, N (Author) Other

Journal

Title: Journal of the American Heart Association

Vol. 143

ISSN: 2047-9980

Publisher: Wiley-Blackwell

Other information

Authenticus ID: P-00V-8R3

DOI: 10.1161/jaha.116.005231

Abstract (EN): <jats:sec xml:lang="en"> <jats:title>Background</jats:title> <jats:p xml:lang="en">To address the need for personalized prevention, we conducted a subject¿level meta¿analysis within the framework of the Heart ¿OMics¿ in AGEing (HOMAGE) study to develop a risk prediction model for heart failure (HF) based on routinely available clinical measurements.</jats:p> </jats:sec> <jats:sec xml:lang="en"> <jats:title>Methods and Results</jats:title> <jats:p xml:lang="en"> Three studies with elderly persons (Health Aging and Body Composition [Health ABC], <jats:italic>Valutazione della PREvalenza di DIsfunzione Cardiaca asinTOmatica e di scompenso cardiaco</jats:italic> [PREDICTOR], and Prospective Study of Pravastatin in the Elderly at Risk [PROSPER]) were included to develop the <jats:styled-content style="fixed-case">HF</jats:styled-content> risk function, while a fourth study (Anglo¿Scandinavian Cardiac Outcomes Trial [ASCOT]) was used as a validation cohort. Time¿to¿event analysis was conducted using the Cox proportional hazard model. Incident <jats:styled-content style="fixed-case">HF</jats:styled-content> was defined as <jats:styled-content style="fixed-case">HF</jats:styled-content> hospitalization. The Cox regression model was evaluated for its discriminatory performance (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) and calibration (Grønnesby¿Borgan ¿ <jats:sup>2</jats:sup> statistic). During a follow¿up of 3.5 years, 470 of 10 236 elderly persons (mean age, 74.5 years; 51.3% women) developed <jats:styled-content style="fixed-case">HF</jats:styled-content> . Higher age, BMI, systolic blood pressure, heart rate, serum creatinine, smoking, diabetes mellitus, history of coronary artery disease, and use of antihypertensive medication were associated with increased <jats:styled-content style="fixed-case">HF</jats:styled-content> risk. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the model was 0.71, with a good calibration (¿ <jats:sup>2</jats:sup> 7.9, <jats:italic>P</jats:italic> =0.54). A web¿based calculator was developed to allow easy calculations of the <jats:styled-content style="fixed-case">HF</jats:styled-content> risk. </jats:p> </jats:sec> <jats:sec xml:lang="en"> <jats:title>Conclusions</jats:title> <jats:p xml:lang="en"> Simple measurements allow reliable estimation of the short¿term <jats:styled-content style="fixed-case">HF</jats:styled-content> risk in populations and patients. The risk model may aid in risk stratification and future <jats:styled-content style="fixed-case">HF</jats:styled-content> prevention strategies. </jats:p> </jats:sec>

Language: English

Type (Professor's evaluation): Scientific