Global transport emissions 1850-2020: Historical drivers and lessons for transport decarbonization

• Type: Article in International Scientific Journal
• Date: 2025

Authors

Tostes, B (Author) Other; Henriques, ST (Author) FEP; Heun, MK (Author) Other; Brockway, PE (Author) Other; Sousa, T (Author) Other

Journal

Title: Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment

Vol. 148

ISSN: 1361-9209

Publisher: Elsevier

Indexing

ISI Web of Knowledge - 0 Citations

Scopus - 0 Citations

Other information

Authenticus ID: P-01A-3P7

DOI: 10.1016/j.trd.2025.104998

Abstract (EN): This study analyzes global transport CO2 emissions from 1850 to 2020 using the LMDI method, offering, for the first time, a decomposition over such a long timespan and global scope. Emissions are split into technological and demand-related drivers using a new dataset. Transport efficiency is divided into final-to-useful efficiency and useful energy intensity, a novel distinction. Key findings include: (1) efficiency improvements avoided 9067 Gt CO2 by 2019, with peak impacts in 1950-1973 (-1.62 %/yr) and 2008-2020 (-3.63 %/yr), respectively; (2) these gains were insufficient to counter rising demand, which led to 8252 Gt CO2 in cumulative emissions; (3) demand growth driven by GDP per capita, service intensity, and population accounted for 16683 Gt CO2 in 2019, with service intensity dominating in 1850-1913 (+3.97 %/yr) and GDP and population drivers peaking in 1950-1973 (+2.57 % and +1.83 %/yr); (4) keeping emissions at 2020 levels through 2029 would require electricity to supply 52 % of transport energy.

Language: English

Type (Professor's evaluation): Scientific

No. of pages: 21