Spatial long-term forecasting of small power photovoltaic systems expansion

• Type: Article in International Scientific Journal
• Date: 2011

Authors

Ramirez Rosado, IJ (Author) Other; Alfredo Fernandez Jimenez, LA (Author) Other; Cláudio Monteiro (Author) FEUP; Garcia Garrido, E (Author) Other; Zorzano Santamaria, P (Author) Other

Journal

Title: Renewable Energy

Vol. 36 No. 1

Pages: 3499-3506

ISSN: 0960-1481

Publisher: Elsevier

Indexing

ISI Web of Knowledge - 9 Citations

Scopus - 10 Citations

Scientific classification

FOS: Engineering and technology > Electrical engineering, Electronic engineering, Information engineering

Other information

Authenticus ID: P-002-JGE

DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2011.05.037

Abstract (EN): This paper presents an original forecasting methodology for achieving the spatiotemporal future long-term expansion of small power photovoltaic (PV) systems in a region, taking into account the population density, ground usage and the type of small PV power application adopted. This methodology comprises three stages: a first stage based on a suitable PV technological forecasting method with a group of experts; a second stage consisting of an innovative and iterative process based on elimination of the possible numerical inconsistencies achieved in the first stage; a third stage with a new method for achieving PV power density maps, using a geographical information system (GIS), that provides significant quantitative GIS information and visual and geographically-disaggregated representation of future small power PV systems expansion. The proposed methodology is illustrated with a real example for the region of La Rioja, Spain. In this example, four different combinations of PV systems and geographical zones were considered, and they are referred to as four "PV technologies" in the paper. The forecasted period range was 20 years with steps of 5 years. The results offer very valuable information for electric utilities, PV systems sales and installation agents, investors and regional authorities responsible for energy plans.

Language: English

Type (Professor's evaluation): Scientific

No. of pages: 8