LOW-CARBON SCENARIOS FOR THE BRAZILIAN POWER SYSTEM

• Tipo: Artigo em Livro de Atas de Conferência Internacional
• Data: 2016

Autores

Santos, MJ (Autor) Outra; Ferreira, P (Autor) Outra; Araujo, M (Autor) Outra; Portugal Pereira, J (Autor) Outra; Lucena, A (Autor) Outra; Schaeffer, R (Autor) Outra

Ata de Conferência Internacional

Título: PROCEEDINGS OF THE 3RD INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON PROJECT EVALUATION (ICOPEV 2016)

Páginas: 113-117

3rd International Conference on Project Evaluation (ICOPEV)

Univ Minho, Sch Engn, Guimaraes, PORTUGAL, JUN 16-17, 2016

Indexação

ISI Web of Knowledge - 3 Citações

Outras Informações

ID Authenticus: P-00M-D8F

Abstract (EN): The Brazilian power generation sector faces a paradigm change driven, on one hand, by a shift from a hydropower dominated mix and, on the other, by international goals for reducing greenhouse gases emissions. The objective of this work was to evaluate five scenarios for the Brazilian power system until 2050 using a multi-criteria decision analysis tool. These scenarios include a baseline trend and low carbon policy scenarios based on carbon taxes and carbon emission limits. To support the applied methodology, a questionnaire was elaborated to integrate the perceptions of experts on the scenario evaluation process. Taking into account the results from multicriteria analysis, scenario preference followed the order of increasing share of renewables in the power system. The preferable option for the future Brazilian power system is a scenario where wind and biomass have a major contribution. The robustness of the multi-criteria tool applied in this study was tested by a sensitivity analysis. This analysis demonstrated that, regardless the respondents' preferences and backgrounds, scenarios with higher shares of fossil fuel sources are the least preferable option, while scenarios with major contributions from wind and biomass are the preferable option to supply electricity in Brazil through 2050.

Idioma: Inglês

Tipo (Avaliação Docente): Científica

Nº de páginas: 5